Toby Aykroyd, Susannah Mayhew and John Cleland argue for family planning
Global population is set to rise by 40 per cent to 9 billion over the next 45 years, presenting a challenge to the future of our planet that should rank in importance alongside climate change.
Poverty mitigation
Future increases in world population will be concentrated among the poorest countries with the weakest institutional capacities to respond to the challenges of rapid population growth.
Equally, large increases in population will create high levels of unemployment and underemployment, making the alleviation of mass poverty much less likely. This case has, for example, been compellingly argued for India.
Rapid increases in population already put serious pressure on water and land for increased food production, a scenario particularly acute for Africa. Research in 19 African countries has concluded that resource scarcities, lack of fertile land, limited potential for crops and increasing urbanization are all largely driven by populations set to treble by 2050 in countries like Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Somalia, making it impossible for them to attain sustainability in food. In such settings a sharp fertility decline is critical to helping reduce the risk of future population pressure.
Considerable evidence now exists to show the contribution of fertility decline to economic development. Fertility and mortality decline comprised about 20 per cent of average annual growth in per capita output in developing countries between 1960 and 1995. A study of 45 countries estimated that the average poverty incidence would have fallen by one third if the crude birth rate had fallen by five per 1,000 in the 1980s.(1)
Civil Conflict
High levels of unemployment and disaffection consequent on population increase are also linked with unrest. Recent research has found a ‘striking and consistent’ correlation between countries with high fertility and an increased likelihood of civil conflict. This was exacerbated where the countries had very high numbers of young adults (below 29 years) – predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.(2)
Climate change and environmental degradation
UK Government Chief Scientist Sir David King acknowledged to the All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health earlier this year that ‘population change is linked directly to climate change’.(3)
Extravagant consumption patterns in industrialised nations are the biggest contributors to pollution and carbon dioxide emissions. However, with 95 per cent of population increase set to occur among less developed countries, as they understandably seek to achieve a higher standard of living they will also contribute more to accelerating climate change. In Indonesia, India and China fossil fuel consumption has increased by 50-65 per cent just in the last decade.
Loss of natural habitat and bio-diversity are a further direct consequence of burgeoning populations. Increasing pressure on fertile land leads to growing encroachment onto marginalised areas hastening environmental degradation.
How do we tackle population growth?
The single most effective way of reducing population growth is through massive investment in family planning programmes. Yet international funding and promotion of family planning has severely waned in the past decade – and at least 150 million couples lack access to family planning information and services.
Governments’ commitments under international treaties must be met and funding increased. As Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan recognised this in Bangkok in 2003: ‘The Millennium Development Goals, particularly eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, cannot be achieved if questions of population and reproductive health are not squarely addressed. And that means stronger efforts to promote women's rights, and greater investment in education and health, including reproductive health and family planning.’
Parliamentary Hearings to assess the impact of population increase were held at Westminster this summer.(3) Taking evidence from nearly 50 organizations worldwide, these have underlined the gravity of the situation.
Family planning must become a development issue of the most urgent priority.
December event
On 6 December 2006, at the Royal Geographical Society in London, three influential figures from the fields of politics, business and media will come together for a meeting called Population: the greatest challenge? to express their profound concerns about global population increase. They are Adair Turner, former director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, John Simpson, celebrated broadcaster and now Senior Editor of the BBC’s International News, and Richard Ottaway MP, Chairman of the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Population.
References
1. R. Eastwood and M. Lipton (2006), The role of fertility reduction in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. See website.
2. Cincotta R., Engelman R. and Anastasion D. (2002) The Security Demographic. Population Action International: Washington.
3. See the All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health's website.
Toby Aykroyd is Co-Chair of the Population and Sustainability Network
Dr Susannah Mayhew and Professor John Cleland are at the Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine