Floods are the most common natural disaster in Europe. The impacts of flooding on communities are hugely complex and diverse. Generally, most people that experience flooding are affected physically and mentally, following the short and long-term disruptions to their lives. Research in the UK has shown that some groups of individuals are more vulnerable to severe weather events, in particular the elderly, children, women and the disabled. The impacts of such events are also influenced by the degree to which financial or personal loss is incurred and the perceived efficacy of relevant institutions in providing correct information and help to individuals. There have also been some occasions when people have received positive benefits through the support of their neighbours and local communities.
Flooding occurs due to many factors. Some will be exacerbated by human-induced climate change, such as increases in intense precipitation events, in the winter especially, and sea level rise in the UK. These will affect river and coastal waters with implications for defence structures and settlements. With the availability of better information on weather patterns and forecasts, there is an increased emphasis on pre-disaster preparedness. This involves among other things implementing options that will forewarn people of imminent danger, such as severe weather warning systems.
In the UK, the Met Office and the Environment Agency work closely to enable accurate assessments of areas at risk from severe weather events and to communicate the risk of flooding to populations likely to be affected. However, it is not an exact science as projections contain elements of uncertainty. Yet there is increased demand for more accurate forecasts and precise warnings. Some studies have shown that people can become increasingly annoyed when warnings are not followed by forecasted flooding, whereas in the Netherlands, for instance, people prefer to be evacuated following early warning, and withstand the stress this involves, rather than face disastrous consequences.
This begs the questions of communicating the risks of severe weather can be made more effective. This is partly dependent upon how the communities perceive the risk of severe weather. Most laypeople rely on agencies and institutions to alert them to situations that may put themselves or their properties in danger. However, memories of such events, once experienced, are generally short-lived (although they may have very long-term impacts). There are few evaluations of warning systems. Furthermore, perception studies have shown that people tend to distance themselves from the risk of climate change. It is generally considered an issue remote in space and time, something that may affect other nations or future generations. This complicates the role of risk communicators as they have to devise means through which the message can be made meaningful by becoming personally relevant so that adequate action can ensue. The uptake of such information is also dependent upon a move away from controlling and diminishing risk to a general acceptance of managing risk. This, however, will also be influenced by the expectations that people will have in authorities' responsibility for safeguarding of citizens and the trust reposed in their work.
We are committed to climate change for the next 50 years or so and will need to adapt to it. Effective communication about the risks we face will depend upon continuously updated scientific knowledge and dynamic interchange of such information among the parties involved, which includes considering their various frames of reference, ultimately to promote constant awareness and to ensure preparedness.