Wednesday 10 September 10.00-11.00

The BA Charles Lyell Award Lecture

'Atishoo, Atishoo, we all fall down': predicting and controlling epidemics

What can we do to predict epidemics and mitigate their effects? New diseases such as SARS and avian flu have challenged scientists to assess and respond to the risks of a pandemic. Mathematical modelling helps us to do this, once we understand where new diseases come from and how epidemics spread. Socially, there are different issues – should we close down our borders to stop the spread of an epidemic?

Presented by Professor Neil Ferguson OBE, Imperial College London

Biography:

• Director of MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling and Chair of Mathematical Biology
• D.Phil. in Theoretical Physics at Linacre College, Oxford University
• Read Physics at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford University, 1st Class in Honour Moderations and in Finals                                                              

Professor Neil Ferguson uses mathematical and statistical models to investigate the processes shaping infectious disease pathogenesis, evolution and transmission. A key practical focus is advising on disease control policies in public health, clinical and veterinary contexts. As well as basic theoretical work on evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics, Professor Ferguson also applies his work to a range of pathogens, including influenza, SARS, BSE/vCJD, HIV, Foot-and-mouth disease and smallpox. He was awarded an OBE in 2001 by the UK Government for his contribution to advising on the control of the Foot-and-mouth epidemic in the UK that year, and was awarded Fellowship of the Academy of Medical Sciences in 2005. His current research focus is on the use of models as contingency planning tools for emerging infections (pandemic influenza in particular) and bioterrorism. He is a member of the World Health Organisation Pandemic Influenza Task Force, the UK Dept. of Health Pandemic Influenza Science Advisory Group, and the DEFRA Science Advisory Council, and DEFRA's National Expert Group on Epidemic Diseases (covering Avian influenza and Foot-and-Mouth Disease). He also advises the US Homeland Security Council and DHHS on pandemic planning.