We need to change behaviour, says Tim O’Riordan
 
Last October’s Stern Report on climate change was the latest warning that the point of potential disruption to planetary life support functions could occur above a global additional temperature increase of 2°C.
This suggests that the maximum concentration of human-created carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere cannot exceed 450 parts per million by volume (ppmv), compared with about 385 ppmv today, and 270 ppmv in pre-industrial times. In essence, global ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions need to be cut by 80 per cent by 2050. This in turn means a 30 per cent reduction by 2020, and 50 per cent by 2030.

Behavioural change

Although political establishments are beginning to recognise this, the Stern Report was not designed to promote cultural change. Somehow we will need to change the social and economic culture that thrives on high carbon living so that we can reduce emissions in a manner that does not cause social outcry and political fright. We require behavioural change because, even with the most advanced and successful technology improvements, they can only – at best – halve emissions in the timescales envisaged.
In the meantime, the scientific community needs to hold its nerve. The most likely immediate reaction by the vociferous elements of the public may be to question the science behind these climate change predictions. Right now the general point of view is to believe scientific judgments. But, so far, there have been no restrictions on how we consume, how much we drive or fly, and how to calculate the carbon that lies in the production, transport and disposal of all of the goods and services we buy.
How do we establish this social revolution?

Practical measures

Here are some things we should do:
• Provide every household with a checklist of its energy and carbon budgets. The Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (www.defra.gov.uk) is now producing this, but to get it into the actions of every household will require serious civic engagement. Schools have a big role to play here.
• Ban all sales of fluorescent and incandescent light-bulbs by 2010. This could cut buildings-related energy use by 13-17 per cent by 2012.
• Change the rules of energy provision so it pays the generating companies to reduce demand, not to increase supply.
• Change the stand-by arrangements for all electrical products so that they automatically cut off in non-usage periods. This will require supporting regulation to require all electrical goods to have ‘inactive’ cut-off technology inbuilt (if new goods) and refitted (if existing goods).
• Via schools, via reality television, via social groups such as the church and the scouting movement, and via community-run programmes such as community carbon challenge, encourage citizens to sign up for carbon reduction targets to their lifestyles. This could be enhanced by setting a deadline of 2012 after which it would be illegal to put a property on the market unless it meets a certain level of energy efficiency and carbon reduction. Such a scheme would encourage job training and job creation in low income neighbourhoods to enable neighbours to install insulation, efficient heaters and renewables technology to low income and poorly insulated homes. All of this would increase property value, add to the life of the home (or commercial property) and create thermal comfort for residents.
• Design into the benefits system an arrangement for grant aid to undertake these audits and to meet the necessary costs of upgrade. The cost of this should come from a carbon levy, thereby meeting the sustainability provision of paying one’s way.
• Launch a major, national campaign of civic virtue around low carbon living. This would create the necessary social support for a carbon levy and establish an element of tolerance over avoidable carbon usage in air and road travel, where the technological and carbon removing options are fewer and more uncertain.
• Begin the process of establishing a carbon debit card scheme. This would eventually lead to a personal carbon allowance. Such a scheme would enable everyone to trade excess and unneeded carbon allocations via an internet market (with scope for purchase by those not familiar with the internet). To introduce a carbon debit card will require much social preparation (and plenty of care over the technology, social fairness, and anti-fraud arrangements). Hence it should only come in at the end of this sequence of transformations.
It may not be possible to establish a low carbon culture by 2030. But all the signs are that we should seriously try, for otherwise we will enter into uncharted planetary waters.

Tim O'Riordan is Emeritus Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia.